A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
