Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

Just eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

The Manager's Celebration of Triumph

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

  • The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.

Cynthia Ward
Cynthia Ward

Construction technology analyst and content strategist with over a decade of experience.